Russia

No one quite knows what to do with Russia. Different countries seem content to have differnet ways of dealing with this enigmatic country. Through complacent and short-sighted energy policies we have become increasingly dependent on Russia to supply us with energy. Its a nice thought isnt it, that every time a British family pays off their (ever increasing) gas bill, most of that money goes straight into the hands of a militaristic minded dictator who is keen to spend it on more tanks, weapons and military potency.
Some people (the Germans and Italians for example) have taken the view that Vladimir Putin is a decent, fair-minded reasonable man, someone we can do lots of business with. And do lots of business with him, they have done. Gerhard Schroder in particular did some very lucrative personal business the moment he left the German presidential office.
Yet understanding Putin is like understanding the new Russia. The two are virtually as one. Putin was a KGB man for several years which tells you all you need to know about his way of doing things. Truth-seeking journalists get murdered, opposition activists get poisoned and people do what they are told. Force, bullying and intimidation are effective methods for imposing control.
But beyond Russia's borders Putin is stirring up something much more dangerous. For South Ossetia today, read Ukraine's Crimea tomorrow and the Baltic states the day after that. All of them fragile democraices with significant Russian speaking minorities. All he needs to do is give them Russian passports, cook up an allegation of needing to protect them and then its a free hand to send the tanks in.
And what will the west do? Going by the feeble dithering over Georgia, probably very little. A little mild condemnation perhaps or some hollow threats to impose a mild diplomatic sanction or two. But absolutely nothing of real substance whatsoever that will deter Vladimir Putin from thinking he and Russia can do what it likes.
Putin has very effectively created a wedge between Europe and America. George Bush is as impotent as Condeleeza Rice is woefully ineffective. Gordon Brown shrinks into the shade of another awkward foreign policy dilemma while David Milibland is too preoccupied by a whiff of prime-ministerial power for himself to be getting on with his very serious and urgent international responsibilities.
But think of the international precedent that the feeble dithering has set. What if Russia becomes emboldened and starts to offer arms to countries like Syria and Iran? Closer links with China, or say Venezuela. What exactly is the West's strategy, if there is one? It is about time one or two leaders stood up and clarified it.